Smug Bill thinks a win is a win

Over the past two weeks, the Patriots have basted the Bills and shot down the Jets. Neither win was very convincing, though the Bills are a team on the rise. Add in season-ending injuries to Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo, and at least a month out for Chandler Jones, and the end of October and all of November just got a little bleaker.

What We Learned

The Patriots offense is improving and Tom Brady is playing back to normal. The loss of Ridley hurts, but the committee of Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden and Jonas Gray should prove capable enough. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are still the main go-to receivers, but Danny Amendola finally got in on the action and his stock is rising. Gronk is still the featured tight end and he’s playing better every week, but Tim Wright needs to remain involved in the passing game if this offense wants to stay clicking. The offensive line is also finding some stability, giving Brady enough time to go through all his reads while also creating room for him to either step up or roll right – something he didn’t do in September very well.

The Pats D is in some serious trouble, though. Revis Island has been solid, but not shutdown. The rest of the secondary continues to get burned by marginal receiving talent. The linebackers can’t cover a tight end and the D-line can barely stop the run. With the loss of Mayo and Chandler, the Patriots have brought in Akeem Ayers and Alan Branch. These additions should help, but will they have prep time to actually contribute?

Unless opponents are one-dimensional on offense, or refuse to adjust to what the Patriots are trying to stop, New England could end up having to put up no less than 30 points per game over the next several weeks.

What’s Ahead

Lions and horses and bears, oh my.

The Bears come to Foxborough this week and no one is quite sure what to make of Cutler’s Crew. Da Bears only seem to be able to win on the road, so this week bodes well for them. With offensive talent at every position, there’s virtually no way the Pats D will be able to prevent stops. Expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 425 total yards of offense. The only hope is that bad Jay Cutler shows and gets careless with the pigskin. Given that he has fewer turnovers on the road than at Soldier Field, this doesn’t seem likely. Fortunately the Bears D are no longer Monsters of the Midway. Brady should be able to find the end zone at least three times.

Back to back games with the Broncos and Colts follow and both of those are looking like guaranteed losses. Again, just too much offense for the Pats D to handle. With no pass rush, Peyton Manning will carve up the secondary (probably Revis Island, too), even if Ronnie Hillman isn’t DeMarco Murray. Andrew Luck is simply killing it and unless the injury bug strikes, I don’t see Indianapolis slowing down. With both the Broncos and Colts D playing beyond expectations, it’s likely the Patriots are outscored 80 – 40 combined.

Then it’s the Lions. Their D is tough (best in the league as of right now), but will that continue to hold by the time they come to town? Stafford isn’t having his best year, so the Patriots may be able to force a turnover in a key moment to win this game. I expect this game to be much lower scoring than the previous three weeks.

If the Patriots come out of this stretch 2 – 2, Pats fans should be happy. That would still keep them on pace to win the AFC East, but probably put a bye out of reach.

Honestly, this Pats fan would be fine if they went 1 – 3, as long as the W was over Denver.

—Ryan Varney